Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market

Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Outlook (2024 to 2034)

With projections to expand at a CAGR of 19.7%, the global autonomous last mile delivery market is forecasted to increase from a valuation of US$ 17.45 billion in 2024 to US$ 106.27 billion by the end of 2034.

Autonomous last-mile delivery utilizes self-driving vehicles to transport goods or services directly to customers' homes, eliminating the need for human intervention. This approach ensures timely delivery while upholding the company's reputation and market standing. The surge in internet usage and the expansion of e-commerce have spurred the demand for efficient delivery methods, prompting businesses to explore innovative solutions.

Various companies have embraced diverse delivery methods, including drones and ground vehicles, to cater to this demand. With the expansion of e-commerce, there is a heightened emphasis on swift delivery, making last-mile services a critical aspect of the delivery market. Major players in the e-commerce industry, as well as emerging food and grocery delivery start-ups, recognize the significance of last-mile delivery services. These services are forecasted to be pivotal in driving industry growth in the foreseeable future.

• For example, in 2022, Ottonomy, Inc. launched Ottobots, a fleet of fully autonomous delivery robots designed for restaurants and retail establishments. These robots are capable of navigating both indoor and outdoor environments and projected to contribute to the expansion of the autonomous last mile delivery market size.

Report Attributes	Details
Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Size (2024E)	US$ 17.45 Billion
Projected Market Value (2034F)	US$ 106.27 Billion
Global Market Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	19.7% CAGR
China Market Value (2034F)	US$ 22.1 Billion
Canada Market Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	19.2% CAGR
North America Market Share (2024E)	27.4%
East Asia Market Value (2034F)	US$ 32.84 Billion
Key Companies Profiled	Starship Technologies; Savioke; Nuro; Jd.Com; Amazon; Eliport; Robby Technologies; Kiwicampus

Why is There Rapid Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Growth?

“Cost-Effectiveness through Long-Term Savings in Labor and Fuel Expenses”

Boom of e-Commerce has altered consumer expectations. People now demand faster, more efficient, and more reliable delivery services at an all-time high. Autonomous last-mile solutions are emerging as a promising option to meet these expectations. They empower retailers and delivery services to offer same-day or even within-hour delivery options, elevating convenience levels for consumers. This not only aligns with consumer preferences but also fosters brand loyalty and enhances competitiveness in a fiercely competitive market landscape.

Cost-effectiveness of autonomous last-mile solutions drives market expansion. Despite the initial investment required for technology and infrastructure, businesses stand to achieve substantial long-term savings in labor costs, reduced fuel consumption, and decreased delivery failures. This positions cost-efficiency as an attractive proposition for companies seeking to streamline operations and bolster their bottom line. Environmental considerations also play a pivotal role in market growth.

What are the Hindrances to Market Growth?

“Uncertainties in Regulatory Frameworks Regarding Liability and Safety”

Strict regulations and compliance mandates exist for self-driving vehicles, especially those used for last-mile deliveries. The adoption of autonomous delivery systems is projected to be hindered by uncertainties in the regulatory landscape concerning liability, safety protocols, and operational standards. Safety is the primary concern with autonomous vehicles, particularly in densely populated urban areas where they must share the road with other vehicles, cyclists, and pedestrians. Ensuring the safe operation of autonomous delivery vehicles or robots in complex and dynamic environments remains a challenge.

Despite advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, there are still limitations in navigation, obstacle detection, and decision-making algorithms. Autonomous vehicles must be capable of accurately perceiving and responding to a broad spectrum of environmental conditions such as weather, traffic, road hazards, and unexpected obstacles. Deployment of autonomous delivery systems requires substantial upfront investment in infrastructure, fleet management, hardware, software, and technological innovation.

Country-wise Insights

Fact.MR, a market research and competitive intelligence provider, through its newly published analysis, asserts that North America is projected to hold 27.4% share of the global market by 2034. Major players in the market for autonomous last mile delivery have broadened their reach to various international regions, such as Southeast Asia, Central and South America, and Australia. This growth aids in the diversification of their supply chains and reduces dependence on a single provider.

How are ADRs Addressing Challenges of Last-Mile Delivery in Urban Areas in the United States?

“Autonomous Delivery Robots Ensuring Cost Reduction and Time Optimization”

Attribute	United States
Market Value (2024E)	US$ 3.56 Billion
Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	20.2% CAGR
Projected Value (2034F)	US$ 22.48 Billion

Surge in e-Commerce and online shopping has triggered a rise in parcel deliveries, posing significant last-mile delivery challenges, particularly in urban settings. This has led to issues such as congestion, prolonged delivery times, and sustainability concerns. Many consumers in the United States now seek faster, more reliable, and flexible delivery options. Autonomous delivery robots (ADRs) emerge as a potential solution to tackle these challenges by cutting costs, optimizing time utilization, and reducing externalities. However, the adoption of ADRs necessitates changes in both last-mile infrastructure and regulations.

Despite these hurdles, the demand for autonomous last-mile delivery remains robust in the United States and is projected to escalate further. A substantial portion of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) may potentially be replaced by delivery autonomous vehicle (AV) services in the future.

Which Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Trends are Significant in China?

“Market Benefitting from Advancements in Navigation and Obstacle Detection Technology”

Attribute	China
Market Value (2024E)	US$ 4.37 Billion
Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	17.6% CAGR
Projected Value (2034F)	US$ 22.1 Billion

The Chinese market is projected to exhibit substantial growth during the forecasted period, propelled by the rapid expansion of e-commerce and the rising need for efficient, cost-effective delivery solutions. Technological advancements in autonomous vehicles, including enhancements in navigation, obstacle detection, and decision-making algorithms, are forecasted to drive this growth even further.

Significant initial investments needed for infrastructure, fleet management, hardware, software, and technological advancements are set to present a challenge. Despite these potential hurdles, the market is projected to expand at a significant pace due to the potential of autonomous delivery systems to enhance efficiency, lower costs, and elevate customer experiences.

Category-wise Insights

Autonomous last-mile delivery end use is segmented into food delivery, grocery delivery, retail product delivery, and medical/pharma product delivery. Out of these four end use segments, retail product delivery is estimated to account for a leading autonomous last mile delivery market share of 36.8% in 2024.

How is Demand for Swift Delivery Leading to the Dominance of Retail Delivery in the Market?

“Implementation of Edge Computing and Deep Learning in Retail Product Delivery”

Attribute	Retail Product Delivery
Segment Value (2024E)	US$ 6.42 Billion
Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	21.1% CAGR
Projected Value (2034F)	US$ 43.46 Billion

Consumers now prioritize fast delivery, and last-mile services have emerged as a major distinguishing factor in the market. This has prompted the development of innovative solutions such as autonomous delivery robots. Technological advancements, including progress in edge computing and deep learning, have enabled these robots to operate efficiently.

In 2023, the retail and food delivery segment led the market, accounting for 85% of the overall market share. Ground delivery vehicles, encompassing autonomous vans, trucks, and robots navigating roads and sidewalks, accounted for a leading market share of 70%. These vehicles are extensively utilized for packaging, food, and grocery deliveries. The retail product delivery sector's leading position in market share is attributed to consumer demand, technological advancements, and innovative solutions.

What is Propelling Adoption of Aerial Delivery Platforms?

“Increasing Demand for Fast and Efficient Delivery Solutions in Food and Retail Sectors”

Attribute	Aerial Delivery
Segment Value (2024E)	US$ 11.74 Billion
Growth Rate (2024 to 2034)	21.3% CAGR
Projected Value (2034F)	US$ 80.87 Billion

Aerial delivery platforms, especially delivery drones, hold a leading market share, driven by the rising demand for swift and efficient delivery solutions in the food and retail sectors. Companies like Flytrex, Wing, UPS Flight Forward, and Wingcopter are renowned for their drone delivery services. Advancements in drone technology and regulatory frameworks have positioned aerial delivery drones as the dominant segment in the autonomous last-mile delivery market.

Despite the presence of alternative delivery platforms such as ground delivery vehicles, aerial delivery platforms maintain the leading share in this market. This trend underscores the potential of drone technology to revolutionize the delivery industry.

Competitive Landscape

Key players in the autonomous last mile delivery market are Starship Technologies, Savioke, Nuro, Jd.Com, Amazon, Eliport, Robby Technologies, and Kiwicampus.

• In 2023, Starship Technologies, a frontrunner in the autonomous delivery services industry, collaborated with Trafford Council and Co-op to bring robot food delivery to Greater Manchester’s streets. Initially, the service is accessible to 24,000 residents spanning 10,500 households. This initiative in Greater Manchester signifies Starship’s growth into the northern part of England. The company’s robots have already made a name for themselves in several towns and cities in the United Kingdom, including Milton Keynes, Northampton, Bedford, Cambourne, Cambridge, and Leeds.

Key Segments of Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Research

• By Platform:

  • Aerial Delivery Drones
  • Ground Delivery Vehicles

• By Solution:

  • Hardware
  • Infrastructure
  • Software

• By Range:

  • < 20 Kilometers
  • > 20 Kilometers
  • Payload Weight
  • < 5 Kilograms
  • 5 to 10 Kilograms
  • 10 Kilograms

• By Application:

  • Logistics & Transportation
  • Healthcare & Pharmacies
  • Retail & Food

• By Region:

  • North America
  • Latin America
  • Western Europe
  • Eastern Europe
  • East Asia
  • South Asia & Oceania
  • Middle East & Africa